OBL is dead, it gets a mix reaction. The first impression was not a rejoice; but a trepidation multiplied by millions. It immediately rewinds the tape: US newspaper; Gen David Petraeus, now CIA’s head, would fight his third war in Pakistan (earlier he fought Iraq war in which 1.36 million people were killed, according to Stratfor, and then in Afghanistan where around 800,000 killed). Wikileaks; the ISI was in 2007 declared terrorist organization (now disclosed in 2011), US State Department report; the ISI-backed Lashkar-e-Taiba Pakistan is the world’s most dreaded terrorist organization, which is spread across Europe and America and has the capacity to launch operations at vital targets in any allied nations’ country. Wikileaks; Khalid Sheikh Muhammad, al-Qaeda’s No. 3 currently undergoing detention at Gitmo has disclosed that if OBL was killed, the European or western countries will be attacked by a dirty (nuclear, chemical or biological) bomb. And so on…
That Obama has mentioned the operation in Abbottabad’s Cantonment locality near PMA Kakul was conducted with the intelligence sharing of Pakistan, but whether it was the joint ground operation, involving US gunships and troops, is not clear. If there was intelligence sharing, then why the Pakistan government could not anticipate that conducting an operation in a military garrison means an open confession that the world’s most wanted terrorist OBL & Co were given covered by none else but Pakistan army. How can it be possible that a looking-different big “Waziristan House” right on the wide road to PMA with 12-feet high barbed wire walls, with no telephone, internet or TV cable connection, and no one from the locals or intelligence agencies manning the area due to sensitive and excessive military departments located in the surroundings, take no notice of it? How can it be possible that a shoot-out is held in an area where on all sides the Pakistan army installations and buildings locate, without involving the cover of Pakistani troops?
It is reported that the helicopter was not shot down by any of the guards from inside, nor was it hit by the Pakistan army troops, but rather the Americans deliberately managed to destroy it there in order to establish it as a proof of the operation conducted after midnight between May 1 and May 2. This also strengthens the speculation that if the US helicopter was shot down or crashed, the people on board must have died but as Obama said in his speech no casualty occurred on the Americans’ side. The experts say that the remains of the Chinook helicopter suggest that it was the latest version of its manufacture, which has a metal on the surface that cannot be detected through even modern and sensitive radar system.
The intelligence failure, the failure of radar systems, and the confusion whether or not the Pakistan army was onboard is a great setback for Pakistan. However, Obama and Hillary’s statements endorsing Pakistan’s cooperation give some relief to the thinking that Pakistan and its security or intelligence apparatus was not in the dark, but at the same the question arises why the Americans are giving credit to Pakistan which Islamabad and Rawalpindi do not want to take? Why the Government of Pakistan or the ISPR are not taking a clear stand? The reports that President Asif Ali Zardari, the Supreme Commander of the Pakistan Army, did not know about the operation until Obama phoned him and informed about the successful execution of “the get Osama mission”, are not believable. It means either the military leadership kept the heads of government and state in the dark, or the government did not take the military leadership into confidence and instead managed to allow the Americans to raid the house near Kakul Academy. This may aim at putting the ball in army’s court to face the international pressure, as already there is talk of the town that the army is heading ISI, a ‘declared terrorist organization’ and patronizing now the US-declared world terrorist organization, Lashkar-e-Tayaba, according to Wikileaks. This also came amidst the government that day was busy in distributing ministries among the new PML-Q partners, and the world on the other hand was planning to take Pakistan head-on, according to Guardian, worse time is waiting ahead for Pakistan, which would be of no match as compared to that of OBL’s death.
There are also speculations that it was a stage managed drama scripted at Hollywood, as General Beg suspects Osama’s body, already killed in 2004, was brought to Abbottabad in a bid to make a case for Pakistan that look Americans had been pointing out that Osama was in Pakistan but the Pakistani authorities had been rejecting the claim that OBL was not in Pakistan. The way they killed him, and hurriedly buried at sea raises a number of questions. Fears loom large that the US may launch the tirade that the Pakistan army had given him shelter right under its nose and hoodwinked the Americans and misguided the intelligence network. That means the real enemy is not the criminal Osama but those who have been protecting the criminal. This is because it wants to prove that Pakistan is the centre, hub and breeding ground for terrorism. This also justifies Gen Petraeus’ claim of fighting his third war in Pakistan.
But there is another possibility which can be positive that Pakistan has so far suffered a lot in this war amidst the do more mantra. If OBL is in Pakistan, why not nip the evil in the bud and eliminate it once and for all. If it is so, then the thinking is appreciated by the general masses. Another view is that the Americans want to withdraw according to the schedual announced. This could have affected Obama party’s elections if OBL was not caught. The task is accomplished, so the Americans may go back and let the regional countries decide their own future.
Many believe that his death is symbolic one, as he was not in charge of al-Qaeda operations and hence the impact may not be much. It seems Obama made plain to Islamabad that the latter will take no credit for operation or break news on it. This could only be possible if all high lifting was done by US. With the passing of OBL, jihadis may reject idea of structured jihadi organization and advocate formation of small terror cells without a central leader. Analysts termed Pakistan’s failure to detect OBL as shocking. They more such direct attack can be conducted by the US forces in their pursuit of ALQ-Taliban leaders. Dangers we face are, tragically, far from over, even if OBL is killed. No one can believe that Pakistan army knew nothing.
It is not possible. The ISI chief’s frequent visits indicated something unusual. Most importantly OBL was found in Pakistan. Reprisals and US pressure, and above all how we react to it is now the biggest test case. OBL is dead. He was a controversial figure. Repressive US can’t win war against Islam. We too are not winning it. Such incidents are eye-openers. We must wake up.
The war on terror and turned on Pakistan, it is not WOT but it now WOP, the option we are left with is defiance with compliance, formulating different development strategy before going for an employment strategy. This we have to see in context of our neighboring country’s war preparedness and readiness and also in relation to vulnerability, if any, of our nuclear arsenal which are now under grave threat.
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